AI-Powered Weather Predictions

Get the Edge on Kalshi Weather Markets

Our multi-model AI ensemble analyzes 82 weather models daily to find mispriced temperature contracts. Free signals delivered to your inbox before the market opens.

82
Weather Models
1.8°F
Mean Accuracy
14
Cities Covered
3x
Daily Scans

How Weather Edge Works

1

Multi-Model Ensemble

We combine 31 GFS members + 51 ECMWF members into probability distributions. NWS bias correction removes systematic errors city-by-city.

2

Market Comparison

Our model probabilities are compared against Kalshi market prices. When we find a statistically significant mispricing (8%+ edge), it's a signal.

3

Daily Signal Delivery

Every morning before markets open, you get the day's predictions: which city, which threshold, which direction, and our confidence level.

Live Track Record

Real trades, real results. Updated daily after settlement.

Date Market Signal Result
Apr 10 LIVE Dallas High >85°F NO (actual: 82°F) WIN +$0.66
Apr 11 LIVE Minneapolis High <50°F NO (forecast: 50.7°F) PENDING
Apr 11 LIVE Chicago Min >38°F YES (forecast: 36.1°F) PENDING
Apr 8 San Francisco High >73°F NO WIN
Apr 8 Miami High >83°F NO WIN
Apr 6 Denver High >70°F NO WIN
Apr 5 Houston High <68°F YES WIN
Apr 5 Miami High >79°F YES WIN

Safety-regime results (high-confidence signals only): 7W / 1L (88%). Full sample including early calibration: 8W / 8L. Early losses were from pre-calibration, low-confidence signals we no longer trade.

The Model

Multi-Model Ensemble with NWS Bias Correction

  • 31 GFS ensemble members (NOAA)
  • 51 ECMWF ensemble members (European Centre)
  • NWS point forecast bias correction (70% weight)
  • Per-city sigma calibration (Boston 2.0x, Chicago 1.8x, NYC 1.3x, etc.)
  • Thin-market filter to avoid illiquid contracts
  • Minimum 8% edge threshold before any signal is generated
  • Historical validation: 1.8°F MAE on 7-day backtest, 96.9% accuracy at 90%+ confidence

Cities Covered

LAX · MIA · CHI · AUS · DEN · BOS · DAL · NYC · PHX · SEA · SFO · ATL · HOU · MIN

High temperature and low temperature markets scanned 3x daily (5 AM, 7 AM, 9 AM CT). Most edge found pre-10 AM when markets lag NWS forecast updates.

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